You’d not be wrong if you glimpsed a cloud of rainbows and fairy dust floating above Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis during his “we’re gonna be just fine” hurricane news conference May 20 in Tampa.

Bless his heart, there he was blathering on about how Florida is “due for a break” for hurricane season 2025 from the devastation of back-to-back, record-breaking hurricane seasons that started with Hurricane Irma in 2017 and continued through Debby, Helene and Milton in 2024.

But this is the governor who fixed climate change with a stroke of his little pen. His “Don’t Say Climate Change” — much less research and write about it or find solutions — is the law of the land in Florida. I guess if one can conquer climate change with a couple laws, surely one can forestall hurricane season 2025 simply by saying we’re due a break. Like shouting the Harry Potter incantation “Evanesco.” Not only do things become invisible, they vanish completely.

He didn’t stop there, no sirree.

He tossed more rainbows by promising the state didn’t need no stinkin’ FEMA assistance, that the Sunshine State was fully prepared to git ‘er done no matter the cost because, well, because he said so, even though the lefties in the news media were riling up the residents (many of whom are still awaiting help from the 2024 storms).

Monroe County received at least $72 million in federal disaster assistance after Hurricane Irma ripped through the islands in September 2017. FEMA handed Florida more than a billion dollars for Hurricanes Milton, Helene and Debby in 2024.

Sadly there’s no Harry Potter incantation for making money (it’s against wizard law), so Gov. DeSantis would be limited to spells that conjure valuable items for sale. But oops. Last week the legislature pulled his wand that would have turned state park into golf courses.

The gov also seems a bit oblivious to the state government shutdown that looms in July if he and the legislature can’t come to terms on a state budget. While negotiators were expected to resume talking this week, there remain enough sticking points to derail the whole thing. By law Florida must have a budget in place on July 1, or risk a shutdown because there’s no cash to pay the bills.

Yeah, right in the middle of hurricane season 2025. No cash. No state workers. No FEMA. But, hey, we deserve a break. Don’t worry. Be happy.

(I would advise, just to be on the safe side, that standard hurricane prep, from toilet paper and water to generators and shutters, ought be on your to-do list. Also, please, cut the coconuts in your palms.)

Hurricane season 2025 | Above normal predictions

Meanwhile back at the DOGE-gutted National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, scientists predict a 60 percent chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season with three to five Category 3-and-above storms. By the way, there’s a 30 percent chance of a “normal” hurricane season, which could mean just a couple of Cat 3s-and-above. Whew! That’s a relief.

All it takes is one. One Cat 5 making landfall at the White Street Pier will flatten Key West like a Cuban sandwich. Not since the Great Hurricane on Oct. 11-12, 1846, has Key West been in the direct path of a Cat 5 hurricane. Sixty of 1,500 residents died; two lighthouses were destroyed and only eight homes remained. The rest were destroyed or heavily damaged.

So all those folks pointing proudly to today’s historic architecture as proof our buildings and homes can withstand a direct hit? You’re flirting with the same rainbows and fairy dust as the governor. Structures built after the 1994 building codes went into effect might make it. Not much else. Come to think about it, my house would be flattened, but my kitchen and laundry closet might survive. Hey, a place to cook and do the wash.

Shannon Weiner, director of emergency management for Monroe County, shared this with the Associated Press last week as she left for her new job in Tampa. When asked what keeps her awake at night, she said:

“The city of Key West is an incredibly resilient community. There’s a lot of history there. But there is also a lot of older architecture there. There’s a lot of wooden homes, and for them to receive a storm, a direct impact of a major magnitude, that would be devastating for them. That is what keeps me up at night – a Category 4 or 5 storm hitting Key West.”

Ain’t no rainbows and fairy dust in that, and I am grateful for Weiner’s clear-eyed assessment.

Beats the heck out of “Florida is due a break.” Good luck with that, guv. Hope you’re right. In the meantime, Ronnie, check in with Weiner the next time you’re in Tampa. She probably can cast a most-helpful Lummos spell.

Learn more

Former Monroe County emergency director explains her biggest worry

Former Florida emergency management director under DeSantis says FEMA isn’t ready for 2025

FEMA payments to Monroe County after Irma

Cuts to FEMA endanger Florida and other disaster-prone states

DeSantis says Florida is “due for a break” from hurricanes in 2025

Florida Legislature and governor at 2025 budget impasse

The Great Hurricane in 1846

Our guide to 2025 hurricane season prepping

• 
  Key West hurricane prep | Part 1: Let’s get started
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  Key West hurricane evacuation | Part 2 | What to do if you leave the island
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  Key West hurricane recovery | Part 3 | The worst is yet to come
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