On Aug. 18 Key West voters will pick a mayor and three city commissioners. Unlike any city election for at least the past 50 years, this one could definitively tell us who’s in charge of the island’s future. Will it be the Conchs and their adjacents? Or will it be the newcomers who for decades have laid claim to being just as “local” as those born and raised here?
For simplicity, I call them Old Local (OL for short) and New Local (NL, natch). You already know which one you are and we don’t have to get into that dreary argument about who’s a local. We’re locals if we’re full-time residents, especially if we vote here.
This prickly dissonance between OL and NL is nothing new. It never is in a small town. We’ve rolled our eyes at each other for 200 years. But the 2026 commissioners’ and mayor’s races are harbingers of a significant demographic shift in which NLs may have amassed the numbers needed to elect enough of their own public officials to counter the historic OL stranglehold on political power.
We saw the stirrings of that demographic shift in the 2024 District VI commissioner’s race. That’s when NL Marci Rose came within 10.09 percentage points of beating slam-dunk OL favorite Aaron Castillo. In the district that once guaranteed the election of OLs, here comes an NL with enough support to make the race interesting. Residential gentrification in Bahama Village made the difference.
For those getting ready to ask about former three-term Mayor Teri Johnston, an NL for sure, consider this: Johnston was mayor with commissions made up almost entirely of OLs. Johnston’s governing and political agendas were NL progressive — and she and the OL commissioners and staff chafed against each other. The OLs didn’t overtly fight her, but they could be masters at slow-rolling her agenda. And they got their revenge on June 26, 2024, when they fired City Manager Al Childress, whom Johnston championed. She left office in November 2024, when Danise “Dee Dee” Henriquez — sans opponent — was sworn in as mayor.
If NL mayoral candidate Sam Kaufman beats OL Henriquez in the Aug. 18 election, the demographic power shift from OLs to NLs is all but done. If the three NL commissioner candidates beat the OL candidates, the shift IS done. The who’s-in-charge battles won’t end, because there are plenty of OLs controlling growth and development and because city staff and department heads tend to be OLs. The slow rolls will continue.
Key West voters: Have NLs reached critical mass?
I’m not sure NLs have achieved critical mass, although they’re close. If the OLs thought they had this mayoral election in the bag, their political action committee wouldn’t be spending tens of thousands of dollars on sophomoric attack ads and mailers. Election ads bolster the faithful, scare the fearful, persuade the unpersuaded. These seem like frantic failures at all three.
At the same time, NLs, especially those supporting Kaufman and the slate-not-slate of commissioners, may be lulled into believing full-throated social media support morphs into votes come August.
As it is with all elections, who beats is about who votes. If history holds true, 5,880 Key West voters will decide the city’s future. Let’s look at some numbers from the 50,000-foot level.
The city’s full-time residential population is about 25,000. About 15 percent of them are under 18, so 3,750 aren’t old enough to vote. About 21,250 are 18 and over and of them about 14,000 are registered voters. About 39 percent of Key West voters are registered Democrats; about 32 percent are registered Republicans. (Even though our mayoral race is constitutionally nonpartisan, you know how that goes.)
The last time we voted for a mayor was in 2022 and about 42 percent, or 6,094, of registered Key West voters cast ballots in the Johnston versus Margaret Romero race. Johnston won 56.24 percent to 43.76. Arbitrarily using 42 percent voter turnout for the 2026 mayor’s race, 5,880 voters will tell us whether it’s Kaufman or Henriquez who gavels the next commission meeting into session.
Who’s most likely to vote? People over 60, with a huge nod to the plus-70s. White people. Post-high-school-educated people. And if there’s one package of demographics the New Locals command in Key West, it’s those three. Toss in the left-leaning politics of many NLs and I think it’s easy to see why I say Key West’s demographic power shift is close.
I’m not calling this election. Energized voters show up. There’s nothing to say Key West’s August turnout might not top 50 or 60 percent, though that kind of showing doesn’t usually happen unless it’s a presidential election. But the big-picture Key West numbers, party affiliations and the demographics of likely voters signal a shift is coming in who’s in charge of Key West. Might not be this time, but that shift isn’t slowing down.
(Author’s note: Depending on one’s research sources, some of these numbers, like population and registered voters, can be slightly different. But there’s no difference in the trends, so don’t get hung up on whether we have 25,000 residents or 23,000.)
Learn more
Explore the historical election data for Key West
Explore the Chamber of Commerce population data
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