Let’s go out on this limb together: We’re loving the Keys and Key West to death. I’d venture there’s no one who believes we’re good stewards of our fragile ecosystem or that soaring housing and insurance costs are a boon to the economy. Surely we don’t believe we can pave over paradise (to use a cliche) and expect our mid-20th-century infrastructure to withstand the assault.

That includes the pro-growth folks with outsized projects who swarm county and city planning boards and commission meetings with promises of more. More housing. More visitors. More entertainment. More money for a fortunate few. With a sanctimonious smile and a piddling nod to opponents, they’re hellbent on “getting theirs” before the Keys collapse.

Out here on that limb, I’m convinced they complain privately that the Keys just aren’t what they used to be, that traffic is a nightmare, that we’re one Cat 5 hurricane away from disaster. They know the holy quartet of infrastructure — water, electric, transportation and communications — built to support a 1970s-size population is crumbling under the pressure of their development demands. How could they not? They’re smart folks and most of them live here; they know the mess they’ve wrought. They have, however, chosen making money over quality of life. I guess with enough cash in pocket they can create a nice little bubble to shield them from golf carts run amok.

The rest of us aren’t so lucky and we’ve sorted ourselves into three camps: (1) Those who cheer on the commissioners and chambers of commerce each time they approve another development project, because, after all, we’ll get a piece of that pie in our own pocketbooks; (2) those who want it all stopped NOW, and (3) those who know both that we’re killing the Keys and that neither group 1 or 2 has the answers — and neither do we.

But Last Stand of the Florida Keys is onto something: We need to shape our growth and development plans within the context of where we are now — and where we are likely to be 20 years down the road.

The sustainable-environment nonprofit, established in 1987, has asked the Monroe County Board of County Commissioners to conduct a “carrying capacity” study that would explore a 20-year timeline of anticipated demand for drinking water, wastewater treatment and disposal, electric power transmission and traffic on US 1. About 20 organizations support Last Stand’s request for an independent study. They’ve asked commissioners to add the discussion item to the Aug. 19 board agenda.

“We’re an ecologically unique place,” said Last Stand Executive Director Jordan Mannix-Lachner, “limited by geography and infrastructure like almost nowhere else in the country. Our long-term planning needs to reflect that, and the fact that endless growth will only destroy what we love about this place.”

We need that comprehensive study. It must be factual and fair if we are to protect the ecosystem that supports both our quality of life and our economy. We simply cannot afford to shrug off half a century of stunning shifts in our Keys demographics. If we do, we kill the Keys.

Built for the 1970s: How much have we changed?

The routine statistics are readily available, so let’s take a quick look at how we’ve changed since 1970.

Monroe County: In 1970, the residential population was about 52,900 and the median income (adjusted to 2026 dollars) was about $63,700. In 2026, the county’s population is about 84,500 and the median income is more than $90,000. The median age in 1970 was about 31; in 2026, it’s about 50. The median home price in 1970 adjusted to 2026 dollars was $206,600. Today it’s $1,052,000.

Key West: The city’s 1970 residential population was 29,300 and the 2026-adjusted median income was about $59,400. The 2026 population is about 25,000 and the median income is more than $80,000. The median age in 1970 was not quite 30, and in 2026 it’s about 46. Adjusted median home price in 1970 was about $235,000. Today it’s about $968,500.

Tourism: In 1970, about 1.5 million visitors explored the Florida Keys. (Key West wasn’t tracked separately at that time, but I think we can assume a majority of ’70s Keys visitors made their way Duval Street.) In 2026, Monroe County hosted about 5.1 million visitors, and 3.1 million of them made it to Key West.

Housing: In 1970, 10 to 15 percent of Monroe County housing was considered seasonal or vacant second homes. Countywide today it’s almost 41 percent. In Key West more than 26 percent of the housing stock is considered as vacation rentals, seasonal occupancy (snowbirds with second homes here) and short-term rentals.

Infrastructure: Monroe County and Key West built their water and electricity infrastructure from 1942 through 1987. Key West got a “modern” sewer system in 1939, but its first real wastewater treatment plant wasn’t until 1989. A $67.3 million upgrade in 2001, along with replacement of all home “lateral” sewer lines, made it one of the best in the state. Before ’89, everything, and I mean everything, was simply piped to a deep exit vent two miles offshore. The county’s $1 billion central sewer system was opened in August 2017. As for the Overseas Highway? Construction continues uninterrupted as the state, federal and local governments race against congestion, sea level rise, deterioration and demand.

Nothing indicates these statistical trends are slowing. And with some 900 Monroe County building allocations waiting on the shelf? Yeah, we’re loving the Keys to death.

(Featured image: The New Hope Restaurant at 222 Duval Street C 1970s. Photo by Don Pinder.)